With less than a day before polls open in Puerto Rico, the October 2024 Elections Territorial poll shows current Resident Commissioner Jenniffer González-Colón (NPP, R) ahead in the race to replace Pedro Pierluisi (NPP, D), whom she defeated in a primary earlier this year. González-Colón, supported by 37% of the poll’s respondents, is followed by Juan Dalmau (PIP) with 31.3%, Jesús Manuel Ortíz (PDP, D) with 23.4%, and Javier Jiménez (PD, R) with 6.7% of support in the poll. In a distant fifth place is the Citizen’s Victory Movement candidate, Javier Cordova, who did not mount a campaign after endorsing Dalmau with 0.6% of support, while only 0.5% of respondents said they were undecided, with another 0.5% selecting none of the above. These last numbers make sense with this being the final stretch of the campaign.
In the race to succeed González-Colón as Puerto Rico’s next nonvoting representative in the United States House of Representatives Pablo José Hernández (PDP, D) took the lead with 38.3%, ahead of William Villafañe (NPP, R) and his 34.1%, reflecting a much closer race than the gubernatorial one. They are followed by the alliance candidate Ana Irma Rivera Lassén (CVM) with 16.9%, and Viviana Ramirez-Morales with 7.7%. For this question, 1.6% of respondents said they were undecided, 1% supported the Puerto Rican Independence Party candidate who endorsed Rivera Lassén, and 0.4% chose none of the above. With a smaller margin between the top two candidates, these voters in the undecided column could be decisive come Tuesday.
Our results for these races happen to be very similar to a recent poll released by Puerto Rico’s main newspaper, El Nuevo Día. These initial results were weighted by the past voting history of the respondents, but the subsequent charts were not weighted.
Applying the approval voting method does not change the overall result in the gubernatorial race, but does bring Dalmau and Ortíz closer in position, revealing overlap in their bases of support. In the resident commissioner race, approval voting narrows the gap between Villafañe and Hernández (without weighing, the raw data pointed to a Villafañe lead), and adds significant support to Rivera Lassén and Ramirez-Morales, indicative of an electorate willing to explore other candidates, but perhaps not enough to change the outcome.
Demographics
A look at the demographic breakdown of respondents in the governor’s race first points to similar levels of support when it comes to gender, proportionally speaking. The sample for this poll, totaling 766, had a higher proportion of male respondents.
For the resident commissioner seat, Villafañe had about 10% higher support with males, and Hernández 10% higher support with females.
Considering age groups, clearer distinctions are noticeable, with alliance candidates Dalmau and Rivera Lassén drawing more support from younger age groups, with the New Progressive Party candidates gathering more support from older respondents. Interestingly, Project Dignity also drew more support from younger voters, which given their conservative views might strike some as surprising.
Considering levels of education, the candidates held pretty consistent support throughout the different categories. The one area that would have stood out was the Popular Democratic Party’s total domination among those who indicated they had no formal education, but the total of respondents in the category was only two; not enough to draw significant conclusions.
One key noticeable aspect is how Dalmau is outperforming his alliance running mate Rivera Lassén by significant margins, which helps explain why in the resident commissioner race, she stands in third place.
Party support
The results of our poll then get very interesting when examining the preferences of respondents, depending on which local party they are affiliated with, if any. As expected given their alliance, a wide swatch of CVM voters are supporting Dalmau, as PIP voters (although by a lesser margin) supporting Rivera Lassén.
In the governor’s race, there is a significant portion of PDP voters lending their support to Dalmau. An even larger segment of Project Dignity-affiliated respondents is supporting González-Colón. Among independents, Dalmau is the clear favorite, followed by González-Colón, and Ortíz.
Results are even more mixed in the resident commissioner’s race. Nearly identical segments of CVM and PIP voters are supporting Hernández. Interestingly, a significant proportion of PIP respondents support the PIP candidate for the seat, despite the alliance and his lack of a campaign. For independents, the favorite is Hernández, followed by Rivera Lassén and Villafañe. This could be the deciding factor for this election.
Where officials stand
Our raw data showed there was a clear oversampling of NPP voters, but even understanding that the dissatisfaction of voters across the board is clear. Even incumbent Pierluisi of the NPP has a net negative rating. Only González-Colón. Villafañe and the NPP had overall higher favorable ratings. The next highest-rated subjects were Hernández, Dalmau, and Pierluisi, although all had more unfavorable ratings than favorable ones. Notably, Project Dignity and its candidates seemed to have higher rates of undecided ratings, signaling potential name recognition issues.
Overall our poll seems in agreement with other recent polls we have seen in Puerto Rico. González-Colón seems favored to win the race for governor, but her lead against Dalmau is in the single digits, and surprises are possible when polls close. This is the first time in Puerto Rico’s electoral history that the position is being disputed by a candidate with a real chance of winning from the PIP.
The election for resident commissioner is even tighter and can be considered a toss-up between Hernández and Villafañe. Should Hernández end up the victor, it would be the first time the PDP holds the seat in 20 years.
In the islands of Puerto Rico polls will be open from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm AST (8:00 am to 4:00 pm EST). We will provide results as they come in once polls close. We will also be releasing poll results on the issue of status and the presidential election.
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