NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, raising concerns for Atlantic territories

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. The outlook, released ahead of the season’s June 1 start, raises particular concern for United States jurisdictions in the Atlantic basin—especially Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, where the legacy of past storms continues to shape emergency response and infrastructure resilience.

According to NOAA’s seasonal outlook, there is a 60% chance of above-normal activity, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal one. The season runs through November 30.

“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

High stakes for US territories in the Atlantic

While NOAA’s forecast covers the entire Atlantic basin, only Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are located in the region directly impacted by Atlantic tropical cyclones. Both territories remain vulnerable to hurricanes and heavy rainfall, particularly given the region’s aging infrastructure, frequent power outages, and ongoing disaster recovery efforts from storms like Hurricane Maria.

These vulnerabilities are compounded by systemic underrepresentation in federal programs and planning. Territorial communities often face limited data collection, which can hinder the allocation of disaster resources and delay response efforts.

The elevated forecast is driven by record-warm ocean temperatures, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, weak trade winds, and a likely active West African monsoon. These conditions make the formation and intensification of storms more likely.

Climate tools advance, but resources lag

While NOAA is rolling out improved forecasting systems—such as an upgraded Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System and experimental airborne radar—scientists and climate advocates warn that recent budget cuts may reduce the agency’s ability to respond effectively.

Forecasts of a record-setting season have heightened anxiety in coastal and island communities. At the same time, NOAA has struggled to fill key forecasting positions, and internal staffing issues have left parts of the agency in flux.

Climate analysts also note that these shortfalls may impact critical services used by emergency managers, agriculture planners, and the public—including residents in Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands.

Upgrades in forecasting and outreach

Despite challenges, NOAA has announced several improvements for the 2025 season:

• Tropical cyclone advisories extended to 72 hours ahead of storm impacts
• A three-week Global Tropical Hazards Outlook for better early warning
• Expanded Spanish-language products from the National Hurricane Center
• Enhanced graphical updates for inland storm threats
• A rip current risk map available when a tropical system is active

As NOAA stresses, the outlook is not a landfall prediction. A mid-season update will be issued in August.

Residents of Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are urged to prepare now and monitor alerts from the National Hurricane Center and NOAA, as the Atlantic basin enters what may be its most active hurricane season in years.