By: PR Pundit
For the four two weeks, we have been analyzing the fifteen (15) Municipalities that have voted for the gubernatorial candidate that won the statewide election and ultimately elected Governor of Puerto Rico, which we have labeled Purple Municipalities.
Today we conclude that analysis with the Municipalities of Trujillo Alto, Vega Baja, and Vieques.
Trujillto Alto
Governor Race:
NPP 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2008
PPD 1972, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2012
Resident Commissioner Race:
NPP 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2008
PPD 1972, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2012
Mayor’s Race:
NPP 1968, 1976, 1996
PPD 1972, 1980*, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012
(*) Municipal Assembly was controlled by NPP.
Trujillo Alto, unlike San Juan and Carolina, was a Metropolitan Area Municipality that, while more blue than red, had always been competitive. A mixture of strong, effective PDP Mayors and weak candidates and internal divisions in the NPP has made the Mayor’s race less competitive than the rest in Trujillo Alto, and since 2000, that has represented a problem for the NPP.
Like Carolina, having a PDP Mayor was not an impediment for gubernatorial or legislative NPP candidates to be elected in Trujillo Alto, but since former Mayor’s Brunilda Soto Echevarría’s disastrous campaign in 2000, where she lost by more than 10,000 votes to a former PDP Mayor, the NPP and specially its legislatives candidates have suffered the penalty.
In 2000 and 2012, the incumbent NPP Carolina District Senators lost their seats because of Trujillo Alto. The same can be said of 38th District Representatives Iván Figueroa Figueroa (2000) and Eric Correa Rivera (2012). Had their losses in Trujillo Alto been by closer margins, they might have saved their legislative seats. This is also problematic for the NPP, since its bench in Trujillo Alto is getting thinner by the minute.
While 2016 is a million light years away, it seems very unlikely that the NPP can fix its political machine in Trujillo Alto to make it competitive enough to score a couple of wins.
Vega Baja
Governor Race:
NPP 1968, 1976, 1996, 2008
PPD 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2012
Resident Commissioner Race:
NPP 1968, 1976, 1996, 2008
PPD 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2012
Mayor’s Race:
NPP 2004, 2008
PPD 1968, 1972, 1976*, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2012
(*) Municipal Assembly was controlled by NPP.
For close to forty years, Vega Baja politics had been dominated by long-time Mayor Luis Meléndez Cano (PDP). Even though Ferré, Romero, and Rosselló won in Vega Baja, Meléndez Cano was able to hold the Mayor’s office for the PDP. 1976 was his only close race, when the NPP gained control of the Municipal Assembly. Meléndez Cano’s retirement in 2004, paved the way for the victory of Edgar Santana, whom Meléndez Cano had beaten the previous election.
It seemed as if Santana was on his way of becoming a strong mayor, even winning re-election in 2008 against Meléndez Cano himself, but a corruption scandal ended his short political career and landed him in prison. His successor also saw himself surrounded by scandals, helping the PDP regain the Mayor’s Office in 2012.
What was surprising, however, about 2012 in Vega Baja was that while the PDP won the Mayor’s race by a very large margin, the Governor’s and Resident Commissioner’s races were very close, and the NPP won one of Vega Baja’s precincts in the Legislative Ballot.
Vega Baja will be one of the big 2016 battlegrounds, particularly for the 11th Representative District race.
Vieques
Governor Race:
NPP 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008
PPD 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 2000, 2004, 2012
Resident Commissioner Race:
NPP 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008
PPD 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 2000, 2004, 2012
Mayor’s Race:
NPP 1976, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008
PPD 1968, 1972, 1980, 2000, 2004, 2012
Politically speaking, Vieques is a very complicated Municipality. It changes allegiances between the NPP and PDP, regardless of electoral waves. It also votes either very close, forcing ballot recounts, or by extremely large margins. It is also one of the few Municipalities where third-party candidates make a difference.
The retirement of long-time Mayor Manuela Santiago left a leadership vacuum in the NPP that produced very weak candidates that lost badly in 2000 and 2004. Unhappiness with the incumbents, led to the defeats of Mayors Dámaso Serrano López (PDP) in 2008, and Evelyn Delerme (NPP) in 2012. Delerme, however, was defeated by a much tighter margin than Fortuño and Pierluisi, making her a prime candidate for a political comeback in 2016.
This concludes our Purple Municipality series. In January, we will resume with our analysis of the Blue and Red Municipalities. Happy Holidays!
