PredictIt markets bet on future of Affordable Care Act provisions

As of late, the bets on the future of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, have been increasing. On the online political betting website PredictIt, the market for bets concerning the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are tracking the sentiment of predictors as to the future of the law. One of the markets, is based on the question of whether or not the ACA plan subsidies will be repealed by the end of 2017. The bets opened up on November 16, 2016 and will close on December 31, 2017.

PredictIt works in a way so that people have the ability to bet on different political issues. Each individual market has shares that people can buy, sell, and trade. The interesting and safe part of PredictIt is that you cannot place a single bet larger than $1. You can buy multiple shares on a single bet, but each individual share is less than $1. The question that you can bet on is always a yes or no question. People have the ability to purchase either “Yes” or “No” shares and for each share that you have with the correct answer, you receive $1 when the market closes. All of the shares with the incorrect answer do not receive anything when the market closes. PredictIt is an innovative way for people to stay informed on current political issues, place bets on the outcome of certain issues and, if you’re good at predicting political markets, maybe even earn a buck or two.

Since the market for the repealing of the ACA subsidies opened up, there have been a total of 2,801 shares traded. The “No” shares are currently being sold at 25¢ apiece while the “Yes” shares have been going for 86¢ each, signaling strong expectations that the ACA will be repealed.. January 23rd was the best day for the ACA market “Yes” shares. They opened going for 90¢ each with a high of 91¢, low of 88¢, and closed at 88¢. The market took a dive on December 31, 2016 when the “Yes” shares opened at only 27¢ and remained that way for the rest of the day with the shares closing at 27¢.

Another market concerning the Affordable Care Act is on the enrollment rate in 2017 for the ACA. Unlike the other market concerning the ACA, this one has the options of selecting a range in which you would like to place your bet on. The first category, less than 12 million, is currently selling the “Yes” shares at 7¢ and the “No” at 95¢. The second option, 12-13 million, has been selling the “Yes” at 94¢ with the “No” going for 9¢ a piece. Third choice is 13-14 million, and is selling the “Yes” shares at 5¢ and the “No” at 98¢. There appears to be a lack of faith in the fourth option with the “Yes” shares selling for 1¢ each and 99¢ for the “No” shares. The same statement appears to hold true for the fifth, and final, option, which is saying that 15 million or more people will enroll in the program, with the “Yes” shares at only 1¢ and the “No” shares going for 99¢ each. This market does not currently have an end date.

It will be interesting to see how the markets continue to fluctuate and change as the 115th session of Congress continues. There are also a few other PredictIt markets that people would be wise to keep an eye on as the session of Congress continues.

photo credit: will1ill Obamacare on the steps of the Supreme Court via photopin (license)