Clinton will likely clinch the Democratic nomination in New Jersey

by | May 24, 2016 | Bocaítos | Comments

FiveThirtyEight expects Hillary Clinton to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination in New Jersey, and they reached that conclusion with the help of our poll results.

We also don’t have any traditional2 polling from Puerto Rico, but there are good reasons to think Clinton will win there fairly easily. She won it by 37 percentage points in 2008, thanks in large part to her strength among Hispanic voters. And this year Clinton has run away with the Hispanic vote in the two states on the U.S. mainland with the largest Puerto Rican populations: Florida and New York. She won the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida by 41 percentage points and the Hispanic vote in New York by 28 percentage points. A model that predicts the Democratic primary vote based on demographics that we’ve played around with on occasion — it came within 3 percentage points of getting the margin correct in Kentucky, Oregon and West Virginia — projects Clinton to win Puerto Rico by about a 2-to-1 margin.


Follow the footnotes and you will see our results report for the Democratic primary on June 5 cited by FiveThirtyEight’s Enten. But we digress. Expect Clinton to become the Democratic presumptive nominee on June 7 with some help from Puerto Rico.