Delegate Stacey Plaskett (D) and her running mate, Senate President Milton Potter (D), lead the US Virgin Islands governor’s race in Pasquines’ October 2026 Elections Territorial Poll. With 43.7% of registered voters, they are well ahead of four independent tickets but short of a majority.
That gap matters in the US Virgin Islands, where a ticket needs 50% plus one vote to win outright, or the race goes to a runoff, as it did in 2018. Warren Mosler and Colin Robertson (I) received 14.1%, and Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg and Positive Nelson (I) 11.4%. Oakland Benta and Merwin Potter (I) received 6.2%, and Gustav James and Randolph Bennett (I) 5.2%. Together, the independent tickets drew 36.9%, but none reached 15%. Another 11.5% were undecided, and 7.9% chose none of the above.
A coalition that hasn’t fully transferred
The governor’s office is open. Governor Albert Bryan Jr. (D) is term-limited after holding it since 2019. Plaskett, the territory’s delegate since 2015, won the Democratic primary on August 1 with 47%. She defeated Lieutenant Governor Tregenza Roach (D) and former Senator Donna Frett-Gregory (D).
The poll suggests Bryan’s voters haven’t consolidated behind her. Among respondents who backed Bryan and Roach in 2022, 61.1% support Plaskett. Another 16.7% back Donastorg and Nelson, and 11.1% back James and Bennett.
The outgoing administration is unpopular. Bryan was viewed unfavorably by 50.8% and favorably by 13.0%, and 36.2% were undecided. Roach was viewed unfavorably by 47.4% and favorably by 31.3%.
Plaskett’s own ratings are nearly even, at 43.7% favorable and 40.4% unfavorable. Potter did better, at 49.0% favorable and 31.5% unfavorable.
The independents struggled for recognition and goodwill. Every independent candidate for governor or lieutenant governor was viewed more unfavorably than favorably. Positive Nelson had the highest favorable rating among them, at 25.5%. Robertson drew the most uncertainty, with 47.5% undecided.
Sarauw runs ahead of the ticket
The race to replace Plaskett in the United States House of Representatives is less close. Former Senator Janelle Sarauw (D) received 55.3%, and Shelley Moorhead (I) 21.1%. Another 13.0% chose none of the above, and 10.5% were undecided. The territory’s delegate cannot cast a final vote on the House floor.
Sarauw, a three-term senator from the St. Thomas–St. John district, ran against Bryan in 2022 as Senator Kurt Vialet’s running mate. Four years later, she has the highest favorable rating of any US Virgin Islands candidate in the poll: 55.3% favorable and 26.3% unfavorable. Moorhead was viewed favorably by 26.5% and unfavorably by 30.7%, while 42.9% were undecided about him.
Sarauw’s support reaches past Plaskett’s base. Among Plaskett supporters, 76.2% back Sarauw, while 23.8% chose none of the above for delegate. Among respondents who back other tickets or are undecided, Sarauw leads Moorhead, 39.2% to 37.5%.
A Democratic territory, cool on Washington
Nearly 80% of US Virgin Islands respondents said they are affiliated with the Democratic Party. The territory was also the most negative toward President Donald Trump (R) of any in the poll, with 79.9% unfavorable. It was the only territory where any national party, the Democratic Party, had a net favorable rating.
On political status, 55.2% prefer the current territorial status, 19.3% statehood, and 3.6% independence with a free association pact. Another 14.0% were undecided, and 7.9% chose none of the above.
A separate approval-voting question let respondents approve of more than one option. In it, 51.6% approved of the current status, 29.9% of statehood, 19.4% of free association, and 7.9% of independence.
About the poll
The poll was open online from October 15 to October 28, 2026. Respondents came from Pasquines’ opt-in online panel, not a random sample. The US Virgin Islands results reflect 28 registered voters. Each response was weighted by the respondent’s reported vote in the 2022 governor’s race, based on the official results.
Polls will open from 7 am to 7 pm AST on November 3, 2026, with results expected soon after.
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