An analysis of Google Search Trends between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders

by Jun 23, 2016Elections0 comments

Now that Hillary Clinton is the presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee, we here at Pasquines decided to take a deeper look into Google search trends for some more insight into the campaign’s success.

The data revealed that search interest for the term “Hillary Clinton” has eclipsed the search interest for “Bernie Sanders” fairly consistently since 2004.

Using Puerto Rico as a case study, we can see a trend that follows the national curve.

This is the earliest point at which Google has made search insights available, however, the most surprising results were discovered over the course of the last 12 months.

While Hillary held a higher average index score during this 12-month period, search interest for Bernie Sanders began to rise steadily after he formally announced his bid for president in May 2015.

Search interest for Sanders continued to rise, culminating in a virtual tie with Clinton in April.During this time, Sanders was just coming off of his first substantial string of victories, having won 14 of the month’s 31 Democratic contests in March.

The search interest Sanders generated during this time period reflects both the momentum his campaign gained, and the collective worry the Clinton camp began to feel. However, he quickly lost this momentum, and as such, Clinton’s search interest rose exponentially. This indicates a positive correlation between a candidate’s victories and the public’s average search interest for said candidate.

However, the search interest quickly tapered off as Sanders lost this momentum, culminating in a virtual tie by the time the Puerto Rican Democratic primary arrived on June 6-a contest that Clinton won.

Ultimately, these search insights offer a statistical look into the Clinton-Sanders battle, and reflect the tumultuous nature of this election cycle. As such, they should not serve as a basis for predictions, but as a tool for analysis- especially in Puerto Rico, where presidential polling is often hard to find.